Is Puerto Vallarta Safe in 2025? A Real Threat Assessment

Every travel blog on the internet will tell you Puerto Vallarta is safe. They'll show you Numbeo crime stats. They'll compare it to Atlanta. Some solo female traveler will tell you she felt safer there than in her own city.

Cool. On February 22, 2026, tourists were hiding behind luggage conveyor belts at the PVR airport while the Mexican military locked the building down. So maybe those blog posts need an update.

This is that update.

What Happened

Mexican Army special forces, backed by CIA intelligence and the Joint Interagency Task Force-Counter Cartel, killed Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes on February 22. You know him as “El Mencho.” He ran the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, CJNG. The operation went down in Tapalpa, Jalisco. About 300 clicks from Puerto Vallarta.

CJNG's response was immediate. Coordinated retaliatory attacks across 20+ states. Over 250 roadblocks using burning vehicles. Gas stations torched. A Costco set on fire. Gunfights with security forces across multiple cities. 74 confirmed dead including 25 National Guard.

In Puerto Vallarta specifically: smoke over the skyline, propane tanks exploding near hotels, vehicles burning in the streets, and a full shelter-in-place order from the U.S. Embassy and Canadian government. Taxis shut down. Uber shut down. Flights mass-cancelled. The airport got locked down by military.

One guy from Texas said he saw what looked like execution-style killings on the road to the airport. He got on one of the last planes out. The captain opened the doors and let 80 extra people board who didn't even have tickets. When the plane took off, dozens more were standing on the tarmac with nowhere to go.

That's your “safe” beach town.

Why the Travel Blogs Got It Wrong

State Department advisories are slow

Jalisco was already rated Level 3, “Reconsider Travel,” before any of this happened. Mexico overall sits at Level 2. Those designations didn't predict February 22 because they can't. Travel advisories are backward-looking documents. They tell you what already happened. They don't tell you what's about to.

Here's a fact most travel bloggers skip: the Trump administration designated CJNG as a Foreign Terrorist Organization in February 2025. Same designation as ISIS. Puerto Vallarta is in the middle of CJNG's home turf.

The “tourist bubble” broke

Everyone says the cartels leave tourist areas alone because they benefit from tourism money. That was mostly true for a long time. It stopped being true on February 22 when cartel operatives set up roadblocks inside Puerto Vallarta, torched vehicles on tourist roads, and the airport went into lockdown.

Here's why: the tourist bubble theory depends on stable leadership making rational business decisions. A succession crisis after a kingpin gets killed is the opposite of that. Factions fighting for control don't care about tourism revenue. They care about sending a message.

Security analysts are saying the power vacuum could last months. CJNG might fracture, might consolidate under new leadership, might go to war with the Mexican state. Nobody knows yet. But none of those outcomes are good for anyone booking a beach vacation in Jalisco.

This keeps happening

Mexico's been running the “kingpin strategy” since 2006. Kill or capture the boss, the organization falls apart. Except it doesn't fall apart. It splinters into smaller, more violent groups fighting over territory. That's how CJNG was created in the first place, out of the collapse of the Milenio Cartel. That's what happened after El Chapo got locked up.

The El Mencho operation is a win tactically. Strategically, it means the next 6 to 12 months in Jalisco are unpredictable. That's not speculation. That's the pattern playing out for the twentieth time.

The Duty of Care Problem

This section is for anyone who sends employees to Mexico for work. Travel managers, HR, security officers. Pay attention.

Duty of care means your organization has a legal obligation to protect employees during business travel. ISO 31030 lays out what that looks like: risk assessments, pre-travel briefings, communication plans, evacuation procedures.

Most companies treat Mexico like going to Florida. Low risk, no special planning needed. February 22 showed what happens when that assumption meets reality.

Nobody had evacuation plans. Flights cancelled, roads blocked, and organizations had no idea where their people were or how to get them out. Canada flat out said they weren't sending evacuation flights. The U.S. Embassy said shelter in place. That's government-speak for “figure it out yourself.”

Companies that had pre-arranged crisis response contracts got their people moving. Everyone else sat in hotel rooms refreshing the Delta app.

If an employee gets hurt on a business trip to a destination where the company didn't do basic risk planning, the liability exposure is real. February 22 is now Exhibit A for foreseeable risk in Jalisco.

What to Actually Do

Before you go

Enroll in STEP. It's free. Gets you embassy alerts and helps them find you in a crisis.

Have a communication plan. Someone at home knows your itinerary and you check in at set intervals. Have a backup method if cell networks go down. Satellite communicator, whatever works.

Get extraction coverage. Security memberships from established firms run under $300 a year. That buys you 24/7 access to an operations center staffed by former SOF guys who will actually come get you. That's not a luxury purchase. That's the minimum.

Build a go-bag. Passport, chargers, cash in USD and pesos, meds, printed copy of your itinerary and emergency contacts. Stays on your person. Not in checked bags.

While you're there

Know your exits. Nearest airport, land border crossing, and U.S. consulate. Know how to get to each one by at least two different routes.

Stay in populated tourist areas. Hotel Zone, Marina Vallarta, Zona Romantica. Don't go rural.

Keep 72 hours of supplies in your room. Water, food, basics. During the February 22 crisis people couldn't find open restaurants. Having a case of water and some protein bars in your hotel room isn't paranoid. It's smart.

Monitor local social media. The first reports of the El Mencho operation hit social media hours before any government advisory went out. By the time the State Department tells you to shelter in place, the people paying attention already knew.

If things go sideways, don't run. Your instinct will be to get to the airport immediately. That's how you end up at a cartel roadblock. Shelter in place until routes are confirmed clear, or until you have trained people moving you.

Bottom Line

Puerto Vallarta might go back to being statistically safe. It probably will for a while. But the conditions that made February 22 possible haven't gone away. CJNG is in a power vacuum. The kingpin strategy is ongoing. Jalisco is hosting World Cup matches in June. There are a lot of variables and not much certainty.

If you're going, go with a plan. Not “I'll be careful” and a prayer. An actual plan with contingencies and people you can call when the situation changes faster than a travel advisory can update.

The folks at the PVR airport were being careful too. They just didn't have a plan.